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Models Tilt Toward Cold, Dry January for Central Europe as Alps Face Severe Snow Shortfall

Several model runs point to a persistent high‑pressure regime with signs of a weakened polar vortex, increasing the chance of prolonged frost.

Overview

  • NOAA’s Climate Forecast System and some ECMWF guidance indicate a blocking pattern over Central Europe in January that favors dry, cold conditions.
  • December brought stark snow deficits in the Alps, including about 78% below average in Trentino and 75% in South Tyrol, forcing heavy reliance on artificial snow.
  • Organizers for the Milan–Cortina 2026 Winter Olympics reported delayed snowmaking at some venues, while local officials insist sufficient snow will be ready.
  • Meteorologists highlight ensemble spread from nights near −20°C to only slight frost, with the DWD cautioning that the magnitude and timing of any cold spell remain uncertain.
  • Experts warn that a second unusually dry winter month would deepen soil and groundwater shortfalls, heightening the risk of summer droughts even if rivers and reservoirs look stable short term.