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Models Raise Risk of New Year’s Cold Snap in Germany as Polar Vortex Weakens

Forecasters await new runs to confirm whether high‑latitude blocking tied to a destabilized vortex will lock in a wintrier January.

Overview

  • DWD says a marked winter outbreak around the turn of the year is possible, with an easterly to northerly flow bringing continental air and increasing chances of snow even at low elevations.
  • The GFS favors a frosty start to 2026, yet model spread remains large, with some runs showing nights near −20 °C and others only light frost, and greater clarity expected by Monday.
  • ECMWF weekly guidance signals persistence that could sustain repeated cold spells if blocking patterns establish over the North Atlantic and northern Europe.
  • NOAA’s CFSv2 shifts January 2026 toward neutral to slightly negative temperature anomalies over Central Europe, implying a higher likelihood of cold phases and snow events.
  • Nabu reports thousands of cranes undertaking a late migration toward France and Spain after the recent chill, highlighting immediate ecological responses to the cold.