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Models Raise Odds of a Colder, Drier January in Europe After Snow-Starved December

Seasonal outlooks highlight likely blocking over Central Europe, but forecasters say the severity and reach of any cold spell remain uncertain.

Overview

  • December brought severe Alpine snow deficits — about 78% in Trentino and 75% in South Tyrol — alongside unusually few frost nights even at mid elevations.
  • NOAA’s CFS and ECMWF guidance point to a persistent high-pressure block in January, increasing the probability of colder, drier conditions in Central Europe.
  • Short-range model runs diverge for the New Year period, with possibilities ranging from sharp freezes and lowland snow to only brief wintry episodes, and meteorologists stress the outcome is model-dependent.
  • Researchers note that disturbances of the polar vortex can send Arctic air into Eurasia, and warn that a weakening Atlantic overturning circulation could elevate the risk of harsher European winters over time.
  • Ski operators report operational strains and Olympic organizers face snowmaking concerns, with FIS citing delays at Livigno even as local officials maintain that sufficient snow will be available.