Overview
- The Zeileis-led research team, which released its 100,000-simulation study on June 10, gives Spain about a 14.5% chance of winning the tournament.
- Opta Analyst, which published its 25,000-simulation run on June 11, ranks Spain first as well but assigns a slightly higher 16.1% probability.
- Both models show no overwhelming favourite, assign single-digit chances to most top nations, and give host teams higher odds to reach the round of 32 but only about a 1% chance to win overall.
- The studies use different inputs and simulation counts, with one relying on machine‑learning weighting of form and betting markets and the other on Opta’s database, which explains the variation in point estimates.
- Analysts say the new 48-team format and extra round raise variance in the knockout path, which helps explain Opta’s finding that 35.9% of simulations produce a first-time champion and why predictions should be read as probabilities not certainties.