Overview
- Multiple independent multi‑model analyses now converge on a very strong El Niño with many runs projecting Niño‑3.4 sea‑surface anomalies near 4.0°C above the 1991–2020 baseline for November 2026.
- Observed daily Niño‑3.4 anomalies reached about +3.0°C in mid‑September, marking consecutive daily records and indicating a large subsurface heat reservoir that can sustain warming into winter.
- The World Meteorological Organization and NOAA report very high probabilities that the event will persist through February 2027, prompting unusually strong official warnings.
- Early impacts are already reported, including floods in parts of South America and droughts and fires in Indonesia, Australia and East Africa, and analysts warn of risks to crop yields, fisheries and commodity prices.
- Scientists stress unusual uncertainty despite model agreement because modern forecast systems have no historical example of an event of this magnitude, which makes regional outcomes like European winter patterns and polar‑vortex responses hard to predict.