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Models Point to Mid-November Arctic Snap in UK With Snow Risk and -6C Lows

Forecast maps highlight contrasting durations with official guidance stressing uncertainty.

Overview

  • WXCharts and GFS-based outputs suggest two possibilities: a concentrated 66-hour snow event around 13–16 November or a longer cold spell from about 15–22 November.
  • Areas most frequently flagged include Scotland, north-west England, the Midlands, Wales and parts of Northern Ireland, with lighter or lower-probability signals further south.
  • Some runs show extreme upland outcomes, including 51–56cm in the Scottish Highlands and localized snowfall rates near 5cm per hour, which are not guaranteed and focus on higher ground.
  • The Met Office long-range outlook points to a trend toward cooler, drier conditions mid-month with greater risk of frost and hill snow, and it emphasizes that timing and extent remain uncertain.
  • A Met Office meteorologist told The Independent that any snow next week currently looks most likely in Scotland, as London and much of southern England face only low chances of light, non‑settling flakes.