Overview
- International agencies including the WMO and NOAA/CPC now assign a high probability—reported this week—of a very strong El Niño that will peak in December 2026–January 2027 and remain active into early 2027.
- Argentina’s national weather service (SMN) is forecasting elevated chances of above‑normal rainfall for the November–January season in much of the Litoral, Córdoba, western Santa Fe, eastern San Luis, La Pampa and parts of Buenos Aires.
- Authorities and scientific groups have issued sector alerts and launched preparedness campaigns focused on farms, river basins and tourism operations to reduce risks from storms, floods and heat impacts.
- Experts stress that very warm Pacific sea‑surface temperatures do not guarantee uniform outcomes on land and that flood severity will depend on the amount and location of rain over key headwaters.
- Forecasters note hydrological effects could persist beyond the peak, with a heightened risk of river crests and related impacts in the Plata basin and provinces such as Misiones, Corrientes, Entre Ríos, Chaco, Formosa and Santa Fe through at least April 2027, and they compare planning needs to past strong events such as 1982–83 and 1997–98.