Overview
- ECMWF-based model runs reported by Meteored show a plausible second warming peak focused on the Niño 1+2 eastern Pacific region, but the outcome and size of impacts remain uncertain.
- Mexico’s UNAM urged households to prepare emergency 'mochila' kits and offered home-maintenance and heat-management advice as officials warn of higher temperatures, drought and elevated wildfire risk.
- Peru’s ENFEN forecasts above-average coastal rains and higher river flows for parts of northern and central Peru, and Ecuador’s agriculture ministry singled out Guayas, Los Ríos, El Oro, Manabí and Esmeraldas as vulnerable to overflows.
- The World Meteorological Organization and national services emphasize that ocean warming alone does not create rains; atmospheric coupling and continuous local monitoring will determine whether coastal warming produces heavy precipitation and floods.
- Scientists note the 1997–1998 El Niño as a past example of eastern Pacific rewarming but say it is only a reference point; sectors to watch include crops, water supply and air quality, and early preparedness can reduce harm.