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Models Flag Mid‑November UK Snow Risk as Met Office Urges Caution

Official guidance points to a cooler, frost‑prone pattern with any early snow most likely over northern high ground.

Overview

  • WX Charts using Met Desk/GFS output shows a potential cold spell from roughly November 13–15 with some runs depicting up to 192 hours of freezing conditions and lows near −6C in parts of Scotland.
  • Several model maps highlight intense but localized snowfall in the north, including rates of 5–10 cm per hour and sizeable accumulations over Scottish high ground in some scenarios.
  • The Met Office long‑range outlook favors a transition to drier, cooler weather with greater frost and fog risk mid‑month, and forecaster Simon Partridge notes the highest snow likelihood is in Scotland rather than across the whole UK.
  • Timing in multiple media summaries points to snow starting in Scotland late next week and, in some runs, spreading into northern England, Wales and the Midlands with signals lingering into the following week, though confidence remains low.
  • Separate US forecasts report a reinforcing cold snap with flurries and lake‑effect snow in parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes early next week, consistent with a broader pattern of colder air across northern latitudes.