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Models Flag 48‑Hour Mid‑October Snow Risk for Scottish Highlands

Forecasters say the signal is narrow with modest expected accumulations, high uncertainty driven by shifting Atlantic systems alongside stratospheric variability.

Overview

  • Medium‑range GFS output shown by WX Charts indicates a concentrated roughly 48‑hour window of snow for parts of the Highlands centered on October 15–17.
  • Areas at risk identified in the model runs include Grampian, Aberdeenshire, Inverness, Fort William, the Cairngorms and parts of Skye and Lochalsh.
  • Projections show only modest accumulations on high ground, generally around 2cm in some reports, and heavier amounts are not expected at low levels.
  • The Met Office has named a near‑term low as Storm Amy and says the system is likely to affect Scotland this week.
  • Forecasters caution that the mid‑to‑late October outlook remains uncertain because of possible ex‑tropical cyclones and large‑scale drivers such as the NAO and polar vortex, and they judge widespread October snow for England to be unlikely.