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Modelled Arctic Blast Faces Officially Cautious UK Christmas Forecast

Officials describe a largely changeable late‑December pattern with rain dominant, with snow most likely on northern high ground.

Overview

  • WX Charts, using MetDesk data, signals a potential snow spell starting around December 17, with some areas possibly seeing up to 60 hours of snowfall.
  • GFS model maps trace wintry fronts between December 17 and 19 affecting Northern Ireland, western Scotland, Wales and north‑west England, with cities such as Glasgow, Edinburgh, Manchester, Liverpool, Blackpool, Newcastle, Aberdeen, Dundee and Belfast highlighted.
  • The Met Office outlook for December 21 to January 4 points to low pressure bringing showers or longer spells of rain, occasional strong winds and some hill snow in the north, with temperatures near or slightly above average.
  • BBC long‑range guidance for December 22 to January 4 favors mostly mild, changeable conditions with any snow largely confined to northern uplands, noting that a shift in the North Atlantic Oscillation could raise the chance of colder weather.
  • The Met Office defines a White Christmas as at least one snowflake on December 25, making 2023 the most recent by that measure, while truly widespread festive snow has been rare since 1960.