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Model Maps Flag Mid‑November UK Chill and South West Snow Risk as Met Office Urges Caution

Official guidance points to near‑average temperatures with frost and fog, with confidence low for late‑month details.

Overview

  • WXCharts and Ventusky visualisations point to a subzero snap around November 14, with parts of Scotland near -1C and some charts showing -2C in western and central areas further south.
  • GFS‑based WXCharts output indicates potential snowfall around November 19 across Devon, Cornwall, Dorset and Somerset, with local rates up to about 3cm per hour and several centimetres possible.
  • Additional WXCharts runs show snow signals for Northumberland and Cumbria on November 14–15 and for parts of northern England on November 18.
  • The Met Office long‑range outlook for November 9–18 highlights changeable conditions with overnight fog and frost and says temperatures are most likely near or above average overall.
  • Netweather TV and BBC Weather note increasing model divergence for the second half of November and suggest widespread snowfall looks unlikely, while the Met Office expects a gradual return from an exceptionally mild spell to seasonal norms.