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Moana Opens Well Below Projections, Evil Dead Burn Also Misses Forecasts

Low domestic starts mean Moana will need strong international box office to reach profitability.

Overview

  • Moana drew an estimated $42–46 million in its opening weekend over July 10–11, a sharp drop from mid-June tracking that had put its debut near $80–85 million.
  • Opening-night audience polling gave Moana an A- CinemaScore, a respectable grade that is weaker than many recent Disney live-action remakes and may limit upside from word-of-mouth.
  • The film carries a reported production cost in the roughly $200–$250 million range, creating a high break-even threshold that makes overseas revenue and steady weekend holds crucial.
  • Warner Bros./New Line’s Evil Dead Burn opened around $15 million with a B CinemaScore and a roughly $20 million production budget, a combination that reduces the scale of potential losses but makes long legs important.
  • The crowded July slate, led by strong holds for Minions & Monsters and Toy Story 5, is fragmenting audiences and intensifying pressure on expensive tentpoles while allowing lower-cost genre films to remain viable if they sustain interest.