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2d ago

MLB Playoff Picture Takes Shape as September Opens

Projections entering Labor Day point to a mostly settled field, with September tiebreakers set to determine final seeding.

Ian Happ #8 of the Chicago Cubs hits a three-run home run to tie the game in the eighth inning against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field on Aug. 31, 2025 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Justin Edmonds/Getty Images)
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Overview

  • As of Monday, projections show a stable 12-team field with Houston leading the AL West by two games over Seattle and a potential Astros–Mariners Wild Card pairing if the season ended now.
  • Under MLB’s mathematical tiebreakers, head-to-head results are pivotal, and the Sept. 19–21 Houston–Seattle series will decide their AL West tiebreaker.
  • This week’s schedule features swing series with postseason implications, including Yankees at Astros, Phillies at Brewers, and Blue Jays at Reds.
  • The Astros enter the stretch healthier but still have Jake Meyers, Isaac Paredes and Josh Hader on the IL, and analysts note a season-long struggle to convert baserunners into runs.
  • History favors current leaders: since 1996, 81% of teams in first place on Sept. 1 went on to win their divisions, while Milwaukee pursues a 100-win milestone needing a 17-10 finish.