Overview
- The collective bargaining agreement is set to expire on Dec. 1, 2026, and owners are widely expected to lock out players if no deal is reached over a proposed hard salary cap.
- Owners have formally proposed a hard salary cap with a spending floor that would limit player pay and reduce payroll disparities, a proposal the MLB Players Association has rejected as unacceptable.
- Clubs and agents are preparing a condensed pre-deadline market in November with an urgent push to sign free agents before any new rules apply, mirroring the 2021 pre-lockout rush.
- Tarik Skubal is the top free agent and is widely predicted to sign before the CBA expires, with the Dodgers, Mets and several big-spending clubs identified as the leading suitors.
- If a lockout begins, the dispute could delay or shorten the 2027 season, force teams to delay roster construction, and increase pressure on midlevel players who rely on arbitration and higher minimum pay.