Overview
- Gallup’s latest party-identification data shows Democrats leading 48% to 41% when leaners are included, a seven-point advantage over Republicans.
- RealClearPolitics’ generic congressional ballot average gives Democrats roughly a 1.6-point lead, far smaller than their 2018 pre–midterm edge.
- Public ratings for Democrats remain weak, including a CBS News/YouGov finding that 64% describe the party as “weak,” and Gallup reports both parties viewed unfavorably by most Americans.
- Polling on the ongoing government shutdown shows a narrowed blame gap, with YouGov/The Economist finding 39% blame Republicans and 33% blame Democrats.
- Analysts and markets still tilt toward a Democratic pickup but with less conviction, with Kalshi pricing about a 57% chance to win the House and Cook calling 202 seats leaning Democratic, 215 Republican and 18 tossups, as GOP-leaning redistricting in states like Texas, Missouri, Indiana, Kansas and North Carolina raises conversion hurdles.