Overview
- The study estimates current AI systems could perform tasks equal to 11.7% of U.S. work hours, representing about $1.2 trillion in wages concentrated in finance, health care and professional services.
- Researchers say the visible effects in tech roles account for only 2.2% of wage exposure, with far larger exposure in routine functions such as HR, logistics, finance and office administration.
- Modeling shows exposure distributed across all 50 states, including inland and rural counties often overlooked in AI discussions.
- The Iceberg Index simulates 151 million worker digital twins by mapping more than 32,000 skills across 923 occupations in roughly 3,000 counties using Oak Ridge National Laboratory computing resources.
- The tool is presented as a policy sandbox rather than a layoff forecast, and Tennessee, North Carolina and Utah have validated and begun using it, with Tennessee citing it in a new AI Workforce Action Plan.