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MITOak Ridge ‘Iceberg Index’ Finds Current AI Can Do Work Equal to 11.7% of U.S. Wages

Researchers frame the $1.2 trillion figure as technical exposure, offering a simulation platform for policymakers.

Overview

  • The model creates a digital twin of the labor market by simulating 151 million workers with more than 32,000 skills across 923 occupations in 3,000 counties.
  • Only a visible 2.2% of wage exposure — about $211 billion — is concentrated in tech roles, with a much larger hidden share in back‑office cognitive and administrative tasks.
  • Finance, health‑care administration, human resources, logistics and professional services account for most of the technical overlap identified by today’s AI.
  • Tennessee has cited Iceberg in a new AI Workforce Action Plan as North Carolina and Utah validate the model and use its interactive sandbox to test training and investment options.
  • Economists caution that capability does not equal imminent layoffs, citing analyses such as the Yale Budget Lab’s finding of no clear labor‑market disruption to date.