Mitidieri Leads Sergipe Race, AtlasIntel Poll Shows

Valmir de Francisquinho's unresolved court challenge to his eligibility could alter the contest and push Mitidieri toward a potential first‑round victory.

Overview

AtlasIntel released an internet‑based survey published on Sept. 10 that interviewed 1,260 Sergipe voters between Sept. 4 and 9 and carries a margin of error of ±3 percentage points.
The poll puts incumbent Fábio Mitidieri (PSD) at 41.3% and Valmir de Francisquinho (Republicanos) at 34.2% in a first‑round scenario while Ricardo Marques (PL) registers 14.4%.
In a simulated first‑round field that excludes Valmir, Mitidieri rises to 44.6%, a level the poll says would make a first‑round win likely.
Second‑round simulations show Mitidieri beating Ricardo Marques 49.2% to 29.8% and leading Valmir 47.6% to 40.5%, and the survey is registered at the TSE and reported to have cost R$65,000.
Because the poll used digital recruitment and Valmir's legal status is still being settled in court, the outcome could shift rapidly depending on a judicial ruling and subsequent changes in alliances and voter turnout.