Overview

• Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran used his first public remarks to argue the policy rate should be in the low-to-mid 2% range, nearly two percentage points below today’s 4.0% to 4.25% target.
• Miran dissented at last week’s FOMC meeting, favoring a 50-basis-point cut over the 25-basis-point move approved in an 11–1 vote.
• He said he has penciled in half-point reductions at the next two meetings, a path he acknowledged diverges from other FOMC members’ projections.
• Other officials urged caution, with St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem saying there is limited room for additional easing as the committee’s median still points to smaller quarter-point cuts.
• Miran, on unpaid leave from leading the White House Council of Economic Advisers, tied his view to lower neutral rates from immigration, tariff, tax, and regulatory shifts and argued that cooling rents will further ease inflation.