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Minnesota Forecast Shows $2.5 Billion Surplus Now, Nearly $3 Billion Deficit Ahead

State economists call the picture stable, with uncertainty from missing federal data shaping 2026 choices.

Overview

  • Management and Budget projects a $2.465 billion general fund surplus for the 2026–27 biennium and a $2.96 billion shortfall for 2028–29.
  • General fund reserves stand at $3.771 billion, and state law directs part of any late-fall surplus into the rainy-day account.
  • The forecast sets the guardrails for 2026 session decisions on possible tax changes, program funding, spending cuts, or tapping reserves.
  • Earlier actions trimmed a nearly $6 billion long-term gap to roughly $1.1 billion, though October tax receipts fell short of expectations.
  • Leaders split on next steps, with Democrats warning about federal policy shifts and rising health costs and Republicans urging more spending restraint.