Overview

• Official forecasts show the policy has proved far more expensive than first expected, with the OBR estimating an extra £15.5 billion a year by 2029–30 versus linking increases to earnings alone.
• Independent projections point to a 4.6%–5% uplift next April, taking the full new state pension to roughly £12,5xx–£12,572 a year depending on final wage and CPI readings.
• About 453,000 UK pensioners living in countries without uprating agreements, notably Canada and Australia, will miss the increase as their payments remain frozen at emigration levels.
• A frozen £12,570 personal allowance is pulling more retirees into income tax, with HMRC expecting 8.7 million pensioners to be taxpayers in 2025/26, up 420,000 on the year.
• Analysts are floating options to contain long‑term costs, including means‑testing and faster pension age rises, as IFS modelling suggests the state pension age might need to reach 74 by 2068.