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5d ago

Milky Way Has Just a 2% Chance of Colliding with Andromeda in 5 Billion Years

Advanced simulations reveal that the Large Magellanic Cloud’s pull dramatically reduces merger odds over the next cosmic epoch

Three images show different scenarios for how the Milky Way and Andromeda galaxies could interact in the future. At top left, two spiral galaxies pass each other at a large distance. At top right, two spiral galaxies are closer together, their invisible gas halos interacting. The bottom image shows the collision of two spiral galaxies, resulting in an X-shaped patch.
Image
Image: NASA/JPL-Caltech

Overview

  • Researchers conducted 100,000 simulations using Hubble and Gaia data to model the gravitational interplay within the Local Group.
  • The study finds only a 2% probability of a Milky Way–Andromeda collision within the next 4–5 billion years, down from earlier expectations of near certainty.
  • Including the Large Magellanic Cloud’s perpendicular gravitational influence shifts the Milky Way’s trajectory away from Andromeda, lowering the risk of a head-on impact.
  • Simulations assign roughly a 50% chance of a merger over the next 10 billion years and predict an almost certain Milky Way–LMC merger in about 2 billion years.
  • The Sun’s red giant phase in around 5 billion years will shape Earth’s future long before any potential galactic encounter occurs.