Overview

• Researchers integrated precise Hubble and Gaia observations into Nature Astronomy simulations to update collision forecasts.
• Models accounting for 22 variables and 100,000 runs show a 2% chance of impact in five billion years and only a 50% likelihood of collision over ten billion years.
• Including gravitational influence from the Large Magellanic Cloud and the Triangulum Galaxy shifts trajectories enough to substantially reduce impact risk.
• Even if the two giant spirals bypass each other, simulations suggest they will remain gravitationally bound and could merge in the distant future.
• Findings highlight the enduring value of Gaia’s stellar parallax data and note that Earth’s fate will be determined by solar evolution long before any galactic interaction.