Overview

• Political scientist Andrés Malamud describes La Libertad Avanza as stuck in a self‑inflicted trap after adopting the paper single ballot, which shifted costs and control to the state and now forces an expensive reprint.
• The withdrawal of José Luis Espert leaves a “ghost” candidacy printed on ballots less than three weeks before voting, creating legal and logistical uncertainty over who pays for replacement materials.
• Malamud notes the midterm primarily sets congressional seat distribution and argues that crossing roughly 45% of the vote would bolster Javier Milei’s re‑election path, with a lower share signaling vulnerability.
• A Methodo report finds Milei dominating digital volume with about 92 million mentions over 12 months, yet engagement is falling and the online conversation has turned unfavorable for the ruling coalition.
• Surveys and qualitative research cited by Los Andes point to high fragmentation, more abstention and blank/null votes, a Milei core near 25%, and reputational damage from $LIBRA and ANDIS scandals, with Buenos Aires’ recent result energizing Peronism.