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Milei Unveils 2026 Budget With Deficit‑Zero Rule and Social Spending Increases

Markets offered only cautious relief, signaling fragile confidence.

Overview

  • Following a televised address, the government sent the Budget 2026 to Congress, locking in a prohibition on Treasury financing via the Central Bank and a non‑negotiable deficit‑zero framework.
  • Spending priorities rise in real terms: AR$4.8 trillion for national universities, pensions +5%, health +17%, education +8%, and disability pensions +5% for 2026.
  • Official projections point to 2026 inflation near 10% with a year‑end exchange rate around AR$1,423 and real GDP growth of roughly 5%.
  • Financial reaction was mixed: equities and sovereign bonds rebounded around 2–3% as the riesgo país stayed above 1,100–1,200 basis points and the wholesale dollar tested the top of the band.
  • Milei adopted a more conciliatory tone toward governors and legislators ahead of October’s vote, and the PRO party publicly backed the spending plan.