Overview
- President Javier Milei and economist Demian Reidel released the 30‑page paper Minimum Viable Scale: Extinction and Escape under Increasing Returns between July 8 and July 10, 2026, and have publicly promoted it as a formal statement of the government’s economic thinking.
- The paper argues that modern economies show increasing returns and therefore face three critical thresholds — an extinction threshold, a floor for returns, and a takeoff threshold — so falling below the minimum viable scale makes collapse inevitable while passing it makes expansion the rational choice.
- Authors identify two forces that can push a country below the minimum scale: a decline in the social valuation of work and regulatory 'wedges' such as taxes, permits and other frictions that reduce incentives to produce and invest.
- Casa Rosada and allies are treating the work as a policy foundation, announcing an academic ‘roadshow,’ linking it to the new Ministry of Desregulation and to planned measures such as tax cuts and property‑rights strengthening with ministers including Federico Sturzenegger publicly endorsing the link.
- The paper is a mathematical proof‑of‑concept not an empirical diagnosis, has not passed peer review, and has drawn scrutiny including an accusation that parts were produced with AI which co‑author Reidel says was used only to edit prose while the authors stress the need for further academic validation before policy calibration.