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Milei Leads Polls as Core Support Shows Cracks

Slowing inflation and tighter agenda control helped stop his May slide, with defections from 2023 voters and high rejection leaving his path to 2027 uncertain.

Overview

  • Multiple May surveys show La Libertad Avanza and Javier Milei ahead in candidate and party measures even as a plurality of respondents say they would choose an opposition option overall.
  • Pollsters report a pause or slight rebound in Milei’s approval in May that many link to a slowdown in monthly inflation and renewed government message control.
  • Management & Fit and other firms record high government disapproval and a rising negative image for Milei, with cited figures near 58% disapproval and more than 50% negative image in some polls.
  • Cross‑tab analysis by Equipo Mide and reporting by Clarín estimate roughly 20% of Milei’s 2023 voters now feel disenfranchised, a loss media calculations translate to about 1.5 million fewer 'votos propios'.
  • Polls also show Milei picking up voters from former Patricia Bullrich supporters, leaving him with a firm base in the mid‑20s and a probable ceiling in the high‑30s, which makes his lead sizable but politically fragile depending on the economy and campaign dynamics.