Midwest Rain Forecast and Oil Slide Pull Corn and Soybean Prices Lower

Overview

• Markets moved sharply lower on Monday with front-month corn down about 13–15 cents and soybeans down about 41–42 cents after NOAA’s 7-day precipitation map showed 1–2 inches for much of the Corn Belt and crude oil fell roughly $6.60 per barrel.
• CFTC Commitment of Traders data for the week ending July 21 show managed-money funds had added large net long positions, about 49,518 contracts in corn and 52,212 contracts in soybeans, leaving prices vulnerable to profit-taking.
• USDA data continue to show healthy demand with export sales and FGIS shipments keeping corn and soybean commitments at or above USDA targets, a factor that supports prices even as short-term selling occurs.
• USDA’s plan to reopen the Douglas, Arizona border crossing to Mexican cattle by August 23 sent live and feeder cattle futures sharply lower and adds a trade-policy shock to livestock markets.
• Expect continued volatility driven by short-term weather updates, crude oil moves, weekly USDA crop-condition reports, and spec fund flows, with farmers and buyers facing faster swings in cash values and hedging costs.