Midterms Put Trump's Economic Record to the Test

Overview

• U.S. voters are casting ballots on Tuesday in midterm elections widely framed as a referendum on President Trump and his economic choices.
• Official data show mixed signals with consumer prices rising 3.7% year‑over‑year in September, GDP expanding at a 3.4% annualized rate in Q3 and unemployment near 4.2%.
• The cost of living is the top voter concern, with many Americans citing Trump-era tariffs and the war with Iran as drivers of higher fuel and grocery prices.
• Markets entered the vote pricing likely Democratic gains, even as an AI investment boom has lifted stocks this year and 10‑year Treasury yields trade above 5%, creating tension for policy outlooks.
• In Brazil, President Lula is vetting heterodox candidates for Banco Central director slots to push the Selic lower while Treasury minister Dario Durigan rejects extreme proposals, leaving investors worried about fiscal and monetary credibility with the Selic at 13.75%.