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Midseason NFL Projections Put Patriots on Top of AFC, Frame Rams–Seahawks as a Toss-Up

New simulations from ESPN and SportsLine recast the playoff race after Week 10.

Overview

  • SportsLine projects New England as the AFC’s No. 1 seed, citing the league’s easiest remaining schedule with only one opponent currently above .500.
  • Modeling tilts the AFC West toward Denver, with a Broncos win over Kansas City projected to drop the Chiefs’ division chances from 22.4% to 7.9% and lift Denver above 70%.
  • Indianapolis is rated a strong AFC South favorite at 86% to win the division in SportsLine’s simulations.
  • The Chargers profile as the leading AFC wild-card entrant with an 80.9% playoff probability, with the Bills and Chiefs also projected into wild-card slots.
  • In the NFC, Rams–Seahawks is essentially even, with the Week 11 winner jumping near 70% for the West title, while Philadelphia holds a 97.7% chance to take the East.