Overview
- Global Brent crude jumped from about $77 to above $86 per barrel in mid‑July after renewed US–Iran hostilities and repeated disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz raised supply risk.
- Retail in Germany reacted quickly with diesel rising roughly 11.7 cents week‑on‑week to about €2.07 and daily readings later around €2.12–2.13 per liter while many stations now charge over €2 per liter.
- Diesel has become unusually volatile and in places matched or exceeded Super E10 prices, reversing the usual tax‑driven gap because diesel is more sensitive to import and refining costs.
- Domestic policy and market structure amplified the shock: the Tankrabatt ended on July 1 removing about €0.17 per liter of support and a widened crack spread plus refinery capacity limits have kept pump margins elevated.
- Consumers face large regional price gaps of up to ~17 cents per liter and are using price apps, cross‑border stops and timing of refuels to save money while analysts warn prices could stay high or approach $100/barrel if disruptions persist.