Overview
- Four states have completed mid‑cycle congressional redraws—Texas, Missouri, North Carolina and Ohio—with analysts estimating Republicans could net up to nine seats.
- California voters face a Tuesday decision on Proposition 50, which would adopt a map reshaping five districts to be more favorable to Democrats.
- The University of Richmond Spatial Analysis Lab estimates 10.4 million Texans (about 36%) and 9.2 million Californians (about 23%) would move into new districts, with only one Texas district and eight California districts left unchanged.
- Nine California districts and eight Texas districts would have majority new residents, including California’s 41st at 100% new and Texas’s 9th at 97% new.
- The lab reports disproportionate moves of Black and Hispanic residents in Texas and of white residents in California, while prior research links such disruptions to reduced constituent knowledge and lower turnout.