Overview
- Short-term heat remains in place this week with widespread 30°C-plus conditions and isolated peaks near 39°C before any change.
- ECMWF and several European ensemble runs now favor a reconfiguration of the North Atlantic/Arctic pattern from about mid‑August that would bring much cooler, unsettled weather across Germany.
- Some ECMWF ensemble members produce intense rainfall for parts of southern Germany between roughly August 17–20 with local totals above 100 liters per square meter and a real risk of flash floods on dry ground.
- The U.S. GFS model keeps the heat longer and allows for recurring hot spells into late August, so timing, rainfall amounts, and drought relief remain uncertain.
- Even if cooler, wetter conditions arrive they are unlikely to end the drought fully because models still show temperatures about 2–3°C above the long‑term average and rainfall would likely give only limited, local relief.