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MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin Bet Faces Index Test After Institutions Trim $5.4 Billion

An MSCI index ruling in mid-January 2026 looms as the key mechanical risk following a Q3 pullback by big holders.

Overview

  • MicroStrategy holds 649,870 bitcoin, roughly 3% of supply, with an average acquisition price near $74,400, leaving the position still in profit at recent market levels.
  • MSTR shares have fallen nearly 70% from 2024 highs as the stock’s premium to its net bitcoin value has largely compressed.
  • Institutional portfolios reduced marked exposure to MSTR by about $5.38 billion, or 14.8%, from Q2 to Q3 2025, with major managers among those trimming.
  • MSCI is set to decide on January 15, 2026 whether crypto-treasury firms remain in key benchmarks, and JPMorgan estimates roughly $2.8 billion of immediate passive outflows if MicroStrategy is excluded.
  • The company has raised over $20 billion via convertible notes and issued multiple 2025 perpetual preferred series, and analysts see no forced liquidations before a September 15, 2027 cash-demand date on a key convertible, with dividends coverable through share issuance or modest bitcoin sales.