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Microsoft AI Growth Boosts Revenue and Raises Capex‑to‑Cash‑Flow Question

Azure’s sharp acceleration and rising Copilot adoption leave investors waiting to see whether massive data‑center spending turns into sustained free cash flow

Overview

  • Microsoft reported $90.0 billion in fiscal fourth‑quarter revenue, up 18% year over year, with Azure accelerating about 43% and paid Microsoft 365 Copilot seats surpassing 30 million.
  • The company disclosed a quarterly capital expenditure run rate of $41 billion and guided to more than $50 billion for the next quarter, creating near‑term pressure on free cash flow.
  • Management said contracted cloud backlog totaled roughly $678 billion, giving visible future revenue but requiring Microsoft to fulfill long‑term infrastructure commitments.
  • Investors reacted unevenly as the stock rallied on the earnings beat while periodic selling occurred as money flowed into AI hardware and server suppliers, and analysts split on valuation with some sharply raising targets.
  • Key watch points for coming quarters include whether Azure growth and Copilot monetization produce higher‑margin software revenue, whether free cash flow rebounds as capex normalizes, and how legacy PC and gaming weakness affects overall results.