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4h ago

Michigan Poll Finds Rogers With Slim Senate Leads as Three-Way Governor’s Race Tightens

A 'definite' voter subsample shows Democrats ahead.

Representative Haley Stevens, a Michigan Democrat, speaks during a National Breast Cancer Coalition rally outside the U.S. Capitol on May 06, 2025 in Washington, DC.

Overview

  • Republican Mike Rogers leads hypothetical Senate matchups over Haley Stevens (44.1% to 43.7%), Mallory McMorrow (45.7% to 42.4%), and Abdul El-Sayed (48.0% to 41.6%).
  • In the poll’s ‘definite’ voter subset, Democrats top Rogers—Stevens 47% to 42%, McMorrow 46.2% to 42.7%, and El-Sayed 46.6% to 43.3%—pointing to turnout intensity as a key variable.
  • The governor’s race is close with John James at 33.8%, Jocelyn Benson at 32.2%, and independent Mike Duggan at 26.1%, while a two-way test shows Benson leading James 47% to 45%.
  • Rogers holds a name-recognition edge at 71.1%, outpacing El-Sayed (47.1%), Stevens (41.7%), and McMorrow (24.3%), as both parties touted the results in rival statements.
  • The Glengariff Group surveyed 600 likely voters by live phone Jan. 2–6 with a ±4.0% margin of error, and nonpartisan forecasters continue to rate both statewide contests as toss-ups.