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Miami vs. Florida State: Ranked Rivalry Returns With Hurricanes Slight Road Favorite

Predictive models lean Miami as Florida State regroups from a double-overtime loss.

Overview

  • Miami is ranked No. 3 and Florida State No. 18 in the first ranked meeting between the rivals since 2016.
  • BetMGM lists Miami as a 4.5-point favorite with a 54.5 over/under, and public models give the Hurricanes roughly a 62–65% win probability.
  • Florida State enters off a 46-38 double-overtime loss at Virginia, with Mike Norvell stressing fixes after 15 missed tackles, three turnovers, and 440 yards allowed.
  • The matchup pits the nation’s top-scoring and total offense at FSU against a Miami defense leading the ACC in points and yards allowed.
  • Miami is 4-0 off a bye with quarterback Carson Beck completing 73.2% for 972 yards and seven touchdowns; kickoff is Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET at Doak Campbell Stadium on ABC.