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Mexico’s Remittances Post First Annual Drop Since 2013 on U.S. Slowdown

A soft U.S. labor market is driving the first annual decline in remittances since 2013, raising vulnerability for households in high-dependence states.

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La cantidad de dólares que reciben los mexicanos en remesas cayó un 16.2% anual en junio
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Overview

  • In June 2025, remittance inflows plunged 16.2% year-on-year to $5.2 billion, marking the steepest monthly drop since 2009, according to Banxico.
  • Total remittances for the first half of 2025 fell 5.6% to $29.6 billion, ending an 11-year streak of uninterrupted growth.
  • BBVA forecasts a 5.8% annual decline in remittances to $61 billion for 2025, while Banamex projects a 4% drop, citing U.S. labor market weakness and a stronger peso.
  • States with the highest dependence on remittances—Chiapas, Guerrero, Michoacán, Zacatecas and Oaxaca—could see transfers exceed 10% of their GDP, heightening regional risk.
  • A new 1% U.S. remittance tax set for 2026 and Mexico’s FINABIEN Paisano card aim to formalize transfers but are unlikely to offset the overall contraction.