Overview
- INEGI’s 2025 intercensal shows Mexico has 130.9 million people, a median age of 32 and a total fertility rate near 1.2 births per woman, well below the 2.1 replacement level.
- One in six households now receives pension income, and CONSAR data show tens of millions of individual retirement accounts that the system must manage as the retiree share grows.
- The budget analysis by CIEP based on the 2027 spending plan estimates pension outlays of about 2.5 trillion pesos and combined pensions plus debt near 3.9 trillion pesos, leaving little room for new investment.
- Labor-market trends complicate funding: female employment has risen faster than men’s but high informality, low cotization and a 19% gender pay gap weaken contributory pension financing.
- Analysts say Mexico needs reforms to raise revenues, expand formal work and build public care services so higher female employment can boost sustainable growth without deep cuts to health, education or infrastructure.