Overview
- Inegi’s timely IOCP estimates show 0.1% month-on-month gains in private consumption for both September and October, translating to annual increases of 1.3% and 2.2% respectively.
- More granular IOCP point estimates indicate growth of roughly 0.06% in September and 0.07% in October, signaling near-stagnation beneath the rounded figures.
- Banco Base calculates that, if the estimates are confirmed, private consumption rose about 0.35% in January–October 2025, the weakest comparable period since 2020, a notable risk given it accounts for over 70% of demand.
- External demand remains the bright spot, with goods exports up 5.7% through September and supporting an accumulated GDP increase near 0.5% as fixed investment has contracted sharply.
- The official Monthly Indicator of Private Consumption (IMCP) for September is scheduled for December 3, which will validate or revise the early IOCP readings.