Mexico’s Oil Revenues Rise on Paper as Pemex Support Leaves 284-Billion-Peso Gap

Overview

• SHCP reports petroleum receipts of 993.2 billion pesos to October, up 15.4% year over year when federal transfers to Pemex are counted; without those supports, oil income would be 739.5 billion pesos, down 14.1%.
• México Evalúa estimates a 284 billion peso shortfall between January and October, noting Pemex contributed 204 billion pesos but received 386 billion, leaving a 182 billion negative balance that coincided with under-execution in Health (−26%), Infrastructure and Transport (−29.1%) and Environment (−29.2%), while Energy overshot by 181%.
• Hacienda published the 2026 revenue calendar projecting 8.7 trillion pesos, with public entities expected to generate 2.2 trillion, of which 59.5% would come from Pemex and 32.8% from CFE.
• Officials say a 253.8 billion peso capitalization of Pemex is recorded as federal spending and simultaneously as Pemex income, a treatment that boosts headline oil revenues while neutralizing the balance at the consolidated level.
• In September the government issued $13.8 billion in sovereign debt and repurchased $12 billion of Pemex bonds under the 2025–2030 plan, as Pemex reported a Q3 net loss of 61,250 million pesos and total debt near $100.3 billion.