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Mexico’s November Fiscal Data Lifted by Pemex Support as Deficit Narrows

Headline gains largely reflect the accounting boost from September’s Pemex debt operations.

Overview

  • Public revenues reached 7.470 trillion pesos in January–November, up 5.9% in real terms, but would have risen 2.3% without Pemex-related transactions.
  • Reported petroleum receipts were 1.071 trillion pesos with the supports versus 817.3 billion without, implying an 11.6% year-on-year decline absent the operations.
  • Public spending totaled 8.462 trillion pesos, up 2.5% year on year, but would have fallen 0.6% to 8.208 trillion without the Pemex measures, with programmable outlays down 3.6%.
  • The fiscal deficit (RFSP) stood at 1.168 trillion pesos through November, a 19% reduction from a year earlier, with the budget shortfall 91 billion below plan and the primary balance 37 billion above.
  • The broad public-debt ratio measured 51.7% of GDP in November with financing costs up 11.2% to 1.072 trillion pesos yet 54.8 billion below program, while tax collection rose 4.6% led by import duties (+19%), ISR (+5.4%) and VAT (+1.3%).