Overview
- México Evalúa reports its broad 'violencia letal' metric fell 27% from 2024 to the first half of 2026, reaching 22.1 victims per 100,000 people but remaining about 26% above 2015 levels.
- The federal government separately reports a sharp drop in intentional homicides, citing a 48% fall in average daily homicidio doloso between September 2024 and June 2026.
- México Evalúa uses five official data series—intentional and accidental homicides, feminicides, other crimes against life and disappearances—to show the decline is recent and uneven across crime types.
- The audit finds no robust statistical link between deployments of the Army, Navy or Guardia Nacional and lower violence, while weapon seizures show the most plausible operational association.
- Researchers warn limited access to disaggregated official operational data hampered verification, note large variation across states and municipalities, and call for targeted local policies and transparent arms data to sustain gains.