Overview

• INEGI’s IGAE fell 0.9% month over month in July and 1.2% year over year, the sharpest annual drop since February 2021, with declines across agriculture, industry and services.
• Retail revenues in July rose just 0.1% from June and 2.2% year over year, signaling cautious consumer spending and soft internal demand.
• The IMF raised its 2025 GDP forecast for Mexico to 1.0% and the OECD to 0.8%, attributing the revision to stronger U.S. demand and front‑loaded exports outside autos such as machinery, food and mining.
• BBVA lifted its 2025 growth call to 0.7% but warned the export boost looks transitory, projected a second‑half slowdown, urged fiscal reform to safeguard the sovereign rating, and called for cautious monetary easing as inflation moderates.
• President Claudia Sheinbaum said preliminary August readings look “much better” than July and urged waiting for official data, noting that multilateral revisions reflect recent improvement.