Overview
- INEGI reported headline inflation at 3.8% year on year in November, above forecasts, while core inflation climbed to 4.43%, signaling stronger underlying pressures.
- Deputy governor Galia Borja flagged risks from selective tax increases, potential tariffs and T‑MEC uncertainty, and a possible rebound in non‑core prices, urging a solid stance as real rates sit near neutral.
- Citi warned that tariffs on Asian imports and a 13% minimum‑wage increase could keep services inflation sticky, projecting overall inflation above 4% in 2026.
- Banamex expects inflation near 4.5% in early 2026 easing toward 4.3% by year‑end, cautioning that households and firms face higher costs and pricing adjustments.
- Rising medium‑ and long‑term yields have tempered hopes for aggressive 2026 cuts, with some forecasters looking for only a modest December trim paired with cautious guidance.