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Mexico’s Industrial Recovery Stalls With June Output Decline

Mining declines coupled with utility cuts led to a 1.3 percent drop in industrial output through June, heightening growth risks.

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Overview

  • INEGI’s IMAI fell 0.1 percent month-on-month in June, ending a two-month rebound from April and May.
  • Official series diverged on the year-on-year change, with one showing a 0.4 percent drop and another an 0.8 percent decline, underscoring inconsistencies in annual data.
  • Mining output plunged about 8.6 percent y-o-y and fell 1.4 percent month-on-month, while electricity, water and gas services also posted steep contractions.
  • Construction benefited from a 1.7 percent rise in public civil engineering works even as private building contracted 0.3 percent and manufacturing posted marginal growth.
  • The 1.3 percent industrial contraction in the first half is the sector’s weakest semestral showing since 2020 and has spurred industry groups to seek stronger trade policies and more public investment.