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Mexico’s First Year Under Sheinbaum: Homicides Fall as Disappearances Surge

Analysts caution that shifting classifications plus missing‑persons data complicate claims of improved security.

Overview

  • Government data show a 32% drop in intentional homicides from September 2024 to September 2025, or about 27 fewer killings per day, according to the SESNSP.
  • September 2025 recorded the lowest homicide level for any September in a decade, with a daily average of 59.5 cases nationwide, the SESNSP reported.
  • Over the same year, the RNPDNO logged 14,761 people disappeared or unlocated, 54% above the previous administration’s annual average and roughly 40 cases per day.
  • Homicide incidence remains concentrated, with 51% of cases between January and September in seven states led by Guanajuato, followed by Chihuahua, Baja California, Sinaloa, State of Mexico, Guerrero and Michoacán.
  • Officials noted declines in several high‑impact crimes, though extortion rose about 20% versus January–September 2019, and academic researchers warn the homicide drop may reflect reclassification or concealed victims.