Overview
- INEGI’s IOAE estimates a 0.5% month‑on‑month decline in September and zero growth in October, with annual rates at -0.7% and 0.0%, respectively.
- September’s estimate was revised down from a slight gain to roughly a 0.5% monthly contraction, a change highlighted by analyst Gabriela Siller.
- Industry weakened while services held up: secondary activities are seen down 2.1% year on year in October (+0.1% m/m), whereas tertiary activities rose 0.9% y/y (-0.2% m/m).
- For September, secondary activities are estimated at -0.4% m/m and -3.3% y/y, with services at +0.1% m/m and +1.1% y/y, underscoring the sectoral divergence.
- Analysts say the pattern lifts the odds of a Q4 GDP decline and could weigh on Q3 revisions; IOAE points to just 0.14% y/y growth in January–October with industry down about 1.7% as markets await the official September IGAE today.