Overview
- INEGI’s timely IOAE points to annual declines of 0.6% in both August and September, with month‑over‑month gains of just 0.1% after a 0.9% drop in July.
- Based on IOAE, third‑quarter activity is estimated to have fallen about 0.8% year over year, with industry down roughly 2.8% and services up about 0.5%.
- The secondary sector is the clear drag, projected to contract around 3.0% annually in September after a run of monthly declines.
- Services show resilience, with an estimated 0.8% annual increase in September following 0.4% in August.
- Analysts, including Monex, are awaiting INEGI’s August IGAE release to confirm the slowdown, noting increased downside risk to 2025 growth forecasts near 1%.